iBooks Textbooks

I don’t pretend to be very familiar with the publishing world, but I’m not willing to bet against Apple at this point. I remember hearing that 30% was a lot off the top for apps. Then that charging for a developer’s license and forcing developers to use obj-C would mean that the app store would never take off.  We still hear that seemingly arbitrary rejections from the store will be the end of them. 

Access to the iOS market, and the distribution mechanism to address it continue to make these costs worth paying.

Will the same hold true for this market? Time will tell. 

I will say that the Textbook industry is ripe for getting shaken up. Revving version numbers to kill the used market, only available in heavy paper volumes and sold to intermediaries instead of consumers? If nothing else, I’m confident that this will help shake things up.

The Dumbest Idea In The World: Maximizing Shareholder Value

I’d be curious to hear a counter point arguing for the safe harbor provision and stock-based executive compensation.

Kindle Fire Usabilty

I haven’t spent any time using a Kindle Fire so can’t comment on whether I think the analysis is accurate. It does look like the issues raised can be addressed in software though - so that’s good news for Amazon.

I thought the most interesting part is the prediction: “7-inch tablets have either a glorious future or will fail miserably”. I’m inclined to agree. I think it will be an uphill battle to get sites to target yet another form factor given the already spotty support for mobile and 10” screens. 

Steve Jobs

I’ve been really struggling with what to write about Steve’s passing. He was the person I admired the most in the world. He was insanely great(tm) at something I place an enormous amount of value in - being right. Other people have called this having great taste, but I don’t think that really covers it.

His hypercritical eye and legendary attention to detail empowered his companies to execute flawlessly. However, this execution only had any effect because he was consistently right about the big picture stuff - the internet, digital media, smart phones, tablets.. etc as well as the small stuff, down to gradients on tiny text. Being able to execute and having the resolve to carry things through are things people can work on, but I think being right is innate, and something he was endowed with more than anyone.

You’ve probably read a number of pieces on Steve over the past weeks, but a few things you might not have seen that I think are really worthwhile:

1985 interview with Playboy // 40 pages.. worth it

1997 WWDC closing keynote // long.. but the most unfiltered video I’ve seen of Steve

2005 Stanford commencement address

2007 iPhone announcement (part 1, part 2)

Gruber on the last time he saw Steve

He certainly put a dent in the universe, one that I’m thankful for.

I wouldn’t have split up Netflix

This morning, Reed Hastings (CEO, Netflix) announced that amid the backlash over the recent pricing change, Netflix would be split into two brands: Netflix (online streaming) and Quickster (DVD delivery). 

In the announcement he said:

Our view is with this split of the businesses, we will be better at streaming, and we will be better at DVD by mail. It is possible we are moving too fast – it is hard to say. But going forward, Qwikster will continue to run the best DVD by mail service ever, throughout the United States. Netflix will offer the best streaming service for TV shows and movies, hopefully on a global basis. The additional streaming content we have coming in the next few months is substantial, and we are always working to improve our service further.

I think this is the wrong move.

Three important facts about Netflix’ business:

  1. Netflix currently captures a very small amount of America’s spending on media consumption (let alone the world’s!)
  2. Media consumption will change dramatically over the next few years towards streaming from traditional physical media and broadcast delivery
  3. Netflix is the best positioned player in this new space

Netflix’ top priority should be solidifying and expanding its position in the media streaming business.

Reasons I think splitting up the company is inconsistent with that goal:

DVD users will switch eventually. One day in 2021 people in Iowa are going to realize it’s a pain in the ass to deal with discs and broadcast schedules. As Quickster subscribers, their business isn’t necessarily a lock for Netflix.

Existing customers value DVD service. The Netflix DVD collection is dramatically more extensive than their online offering - it has practically everything ever made. While I turned DVD service off the first day I could, around half Netflix’ customer base subscribe to a combined plan. For those customers, the Netflix value-proposition diminishes significantly, as they have to manage their media consumption using two different services. Having the services combined meant that every time I search for a movie that isn’t available for streaming Netflix can use the opportunity to tell me that they have it on disc. Even if I’m not going to upgrade me account it reminds me that Netflix has the biggest catalog of movies and that they’re working on making it all available for streaming.

Related:

A great introduction to Metro, a genuinely unique design language and model for applications introduced in Windows Phone, but further realized in Windows 8.

I really like how Jensen takes the time to explain the intention and real user benefit of a lot of the decisions. I really look forward to trying out a Windows 8 slate in person.

Thoughts on software patents

Working for Microsoft, a few things I’m working on are being considered for patents. As someone who believes that patents on software are a bad idea, I’ve got mixed feelings about this. 

This  paragraph from Lukas Mathis’ post ”It’s broken“ pretty much sums up my beliefs about patents:

Patents make sense when there’s a huge initial investment, the resulting product is easy to copy perfectly, and companies can profit from reading a competitor’s patents (for example, in the pharmaceutical industry). They make little to no sense when the initial investment is small, the resulting product is hard to copy perfectly, and the patents rarely offer any useful information (which is typically the case in the software industry).

In today’s environment, companies like Microsoft need to hold and license patents for defensive purposes - not doing so would represent a large risk of costly settlements.

It’s somewhat heartening to know that with the notable exception of the case against SalesForce, Microsoft doesn’t have a history of suing for infringement. The cash payout we get for putting our names on patent applications also helps make this a bit less of a bitter pill to swallow. 

See also:

Solving the wrong problem - why agility matters

Startup Genome Project: first report available

Download link  (form required)

The one person who should be thrilled about this is Eric Ries. A lot of the findings boil down to what we’ve heard out of the lean startup community from some time now. Except instead of the insights of few luminaries, we seem to be getting a fairly similar set of findings from a somewhat scientific approach*. Stuff like:

  • Have more than one founder, ideally with a mix of engineering and business backgrounds
  • Finding out what people want and will pay for is harder than building it
  • Mentors are important
  • People in it for the money don’t win
  • Willingness to adjust course is critical

There was one interesting finding that I’m going to look into a bit more: 

Startups that pivot once or twice times [sic] raise 2.5x more money, have 3.6x better user growth, and are 52% less likely to scale prematurely than startups that pivot more than 2 times or not at all

This suggests that pivoting yields diminishing returns - somewhat contrary to the notion that pivoting early and often is the path to success. I’ll post an update when I’ve finished reading the report.

* I’m no scientist, but if it says “Genome” it’s gotta be legit right? ;-)

Lion terminal: nice touch

What’s going on here? 

I’d just restarted my machine (installing 10.7.1 update) and had opted to ‘Reopen windows when logging back in’ (another nice new feature). The terminal pops up with my previous session still visible but greyed out to indicate that it’s not current. Nice attention to detail.

Some intern got pretty busy upgrading the terminal app. Other changes I’ve noticed:

  • Spinner in the title when there is a long running operation
  • Opaque background (didn’t like it.. turned it off)
  • Support for fullscreen mode
  • Tons of pre-canned color themes